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World Order at Crossroads: Reordering Geopolitics and Unravelling Alliances, Diplomacy, Deterrence and Strategic Governance

The International system is undergoing immense reordering marked by fragmentation, economic coercion and governance contestation. From US-renewed unilateralism under President Trump to intensive power rivalry and regional instability, the recent geopolitical situation, with a significant shift towards technology driven power politics has exposed the limits of the post-cold war order.


IMAGE CREDITS:PINTEREST
IMAGE CREDITS:PINTEREST

United States under Trump : Recent developments in IR

 Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency has emerged as a defining force in global politics with the White House in 2025 releasing a new National Security Strategy that critiqued traditional alliances and embraced sovereignty-first diplomacy. 

Venezuela Intervention 
On 3rd January 2026 US forces, in a targeted operation in Caracas, captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, with Washington justifying the operation by citing drug trafficking charges, narco-terrorism and the designation of the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist Organisation (“US strikes Venezuela”). Russia and China condemned the move as a “flagrant violation of Sovereignty". 
Greenland and NATO tensions
Trump further reiterated that the US “needs” Greenland for national security, linking it to the Golden Dome missile defence system which aims at countering Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen declared that Greenland is “not for sale”, warning that a US attempt to seize it would “end NATO”, while the EU has considered invoking Article 42.7, its mutual defence clause. (“Washington”)

IMAGE CREDITS-SPECIALEURASIA
IMAGE CREDITS-SPECIALEURASIA

Instability in Middle East: Iran, Syria and the Gulf

Iran

is currently viewed as being in a pre-conflict stage with the US. Iran faces massive protests, with President Trump publicly telling protesters that “Help is on the Way”. The US further announced a 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, and this enormous economic pressure was further enhanced by the collapse of the Iranian Rial to 1USD=10,45,150 rials. The Pentagon has, as per reports, presented Strike options on Iran, including on its nuclear program. 

Syria and Gulf: Fragile situation

After the fall of the Assad regime in 2024, Syria came under Ahmed al-Sharaa’s leadership. Recently a ‘Shadow Government” crisis has also emerged as conservative factions clashed with the urban population in Aleppo, once again igniting the spark of civil war. (Henley) Moreover, a growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has appeared over Yemen, particularly over control of southern oil fields and fears of secession . (“Saudi-UAE strategic friction”)

The Russia-Ukraine War Escalation

Moving to Europe, in early 2026, Russia intensified its winter energy offensive, launching more than 240 drones in a single night on January 9 against the Ukrainian power grid (Kozun and Elías). Russia reportedly used an Oreshnik ballistic missile, capable of carrying nuclear payloads for the second time further stressing the situation. (Hardie)

US withdrawal from Multilateralism 

In January 2026,  President Trump’s administration announced withdrawal from 66 international organisations including the UNFCCC and UNFPA. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US would no longer spend “blood, sweat and treasure” on institutions that have no returns. (“Donald Trump withdraws US from 66 international organisations”)


BRICS 2026 AND INDIA-US STRAINS

Coming to Asia, India assumed the BRICS+ chair for its 20th Anniversary in 2026 with External Affairs minister S. Jaishankar unveiling a new logo featuring a lotus, member nations’ colours and a Namaste gesture reflecting a people-centric Global South vision. With 11 members which include Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE among others, BRICS+ has emerged as an economic alternative to G7. Meanwhile India-US relations hit a historic low after Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods citing the import of Russian oil by India as ‘finance of the Russian War Machine’ and a recent bipartisan proposal, the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill (Sanctioning Russia Act) authorizes the U.S. President to impose tariffs of up to 500% on imports from countries that continue purchasing Russian energy, including oil and gas, as part of expanded secondary sanctions aimed at pressuring Moscow over the Ukraine war. (Yadav)


Global Economic shifts

 ASEAN,  Sanctions and Eurozone expansion Southeast Asia is divided over the U.S.’s “Operation Southern Spear” (Caribbean blockade) while Cambodia and Vietnam have moved under China’s security umbrella to avoid sanctions-related economic retaliation. On the other hand, Bulgaria adopted the Euro on January 1, 2026 becoming the 21st Eurozone member. (“Bulgaria and the euro - Economy and Finance - European Commission”)

US immigration and Education Restrictions Effective from 1 January 2026, the US has expanded its travel ban to 19 countries, introduced a $100,000 H-1B petition fee and issuing a proclamation restricting foreign students from attending Harvard University based on national security concerns. (Federal Register)


Geoeconomics, Technology and Global Politics 


The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025 (“Global Risks Report 2025 | World Economic Forum”) identified economic conflicts such as sanctions, tariffs and supply chain control as the most severe global risks, surpassing even armed conflicts and climate change. Further, geoeconomic equations are fraught with competition over rare earth minerals, with Greenland reflecting this fallout. Alongside this, China’s President Xi Jinping unveiled the Global Governance Initiative (GGI), complementing the GSI (Global Security Initiative) counteracting the US, especially in the Global South. Further at the 17th BRICS Summit in Brazil in 2025, AI was described as a ‘Unique Opportunity’ for inclusive growth, but it also warned about the digital divide that can emerge without effective governance and urged the UN to take on the responsibility for it. Academic research also highlights generative AI and industry 5.0 as strategic assets reshaping global power.


Arms control and alliances

More importantly, the New START treaty, which is the last major US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement, is going to expire on 5 February 2026, and with no replacements in place, the fear of a neo-arms race and possible escalation is at a record high. (Cohen) To counteract the technological fragmentation, the US has also launched Pax Silica, ‘a NATO of Semiconductors’, securing supply chains, and recently India too has been invited as a key partner in this new alliance, raising its strategic significance in guiding foreign policy. (Mishra)


IMAGE CREDITS-THE ECONOMIC TIMES
IMAGE CREDITS-THE ECONOMIC TIMES

India’s Autonomy in Multipolar world

India’s current foreign policy, amidst all this tussle, reflects multi-alignment: balancing ties with the US, Russia and China while also pushing for trade diplomacy. India has supplied energy to Ukraine, reflecting non-bloc energy security. Recent trade agreements like the India-Australia ECTA on 1 January discussing 100% tariff elimination and the India-UK FTA (CETA) implying Duty cut on Scotch from 150% and 99% duty free access for Indian exports . (“India UK Free Trade Agreement, Objective, Background, Benefits”) India EFTA agreement pushing forth a $100 billion investment over 15 years and expanding UPI-IPP linkage, and the India-UAE CEPA are also further achievements of the past year’s economic diplomacy efforts. (Chauhan) Moreover, the India-EU FTA has entered a final decisive phase with a potential conclusion on January 27, 2026 at the India-EU summit. (“India, EU hold FTA talks; reaffirm commitment to protect farmers, MSMEs”)


Conclusion

Together, these developments underscore the emergence of a volatile yet multipolar world where power is exercised not only through institutions but more importantly, through sanctions, supply chain control, technological alliances and strategic autonomy. As the logic of deterrence becomes weak, climate commitment strains, wars escalate and governance structure fragments, global powers, particularly the Global South and India face both unprecedented risks and strategic opportunities which can possibly define the next phase of the world order.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

ABOUT WRITER

Gaurav Kohli is a 1st year Political Science hons student at Hindu College. With a lifelong love of journalism, international relations and environmental advocacy, he loves to delve deeper into politics through a critical lens



 
 
 
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